(CelebrityAccess News Service) – According to a report by Informa Media Group, the value of global music sales will continue to fall until 2005.
The Global Music Industry (3rd Edition) estimates sales will drop below $28 billion in 2004 until its expected recovery in 2005. The report says this drop is driven by the restriction of online file sharing and more control of CD copying. However, global sales are expected to rise to $32 billion by 2008.
For 2003 the value of the world's music sales is forecast to fall for the fourth year in succession. Informa Media estimates the decrease in the retail value will be 8.9%, reducing the overall value of sales to $28.2 billion. CD sales, which fell for the first time in 2001, are forecast to decrease for a third year – by 8% to 2.1 billion units.
"The music industry is in a bad way at the moment but the continued fall in the value of music sales is certainly not irreversible,” says Simon Dyson, the report’s author. “ The success of the new download services proves there is a viable market for legitimate digital sales, but the music companies must act decisively to stop the growth of the illegal services and the widespread copying of CDs."
Although Informa has forecast a return to growth in 2005, this is not based on an assumption of inevitable growth after lengthy decline but on the music industry finally scoring some success in the battle against file sharing and CD copying.
While the sale of music via the Internet is to prove itself as a growth sector, Informa believes its significance has been exaggerated and will not prove to be the industry's savior in the short- to medium-term. For the years up to and including 2008 the level of online music sales in all formats is forecast to rise but will only account for an estimated 12.1% share of the global total. Digital music sales will increase in the years to 2008 but will remain a niche sector. By 2008, digital sales will account for an estimated 5.7% of the global total.
The 194-page Global Music Industry Report also includes regional and country profiles of the top 20 music markets with sales and market share details in addition to forecasts for music sales via traditional retailers and the Internet. It sells for £650 in the UK and $975 in the US. For more information, contact Simon Dyson at simon.dyson@informa.com. –Jane Cohen and Bob Grossweiner
